NCJ Number
49750
Date Published
1976
Length
41 pages
Annotation
ARREST AND CENSUS COUNTS WERE USED AS TWO DATA SETS IN THE IDENTIFICATION OF POPULATION-BASED CRIME RATES IN FIVE U.S. CITIES.
Abstract
DATA WERE OBTAINED FROM THE POLICE DEPARTMENTS OF CLEVELAND, OHIO, BOSTON, MASS., DALLAS, TEX., CHICAGO, ILL., AND WASHINGTON, D.C., TO DERIVE ESTIMATED OFFENSE RATES AND TO EXAMINE THE INTERACTION OF POPULATION AND CRIME RATE CHANGES, TRENDS IN THE RELATIVE CRIMINAL PARTICIPATION OF YOUNG PERSONS, AND TRENDS IN THE RACIAL CONCENTRATION OF CRIME. ARREST STATISTICS WERE NONSPECIFIC, PROVED NOT TO BE A PERFECT PREDICTOR OF CRIME RATES, AND REFLECTED THE FACT THAT A HIGHER PROPORTION OF GROUP CRIMINALITY PRODUCES A RATIO OF ARRESTS TO CRIMES THAT IS HIGHER FOR YOUNG PERSONS THAN FOR ADULTS. POPULATION ESTIMATES WERE DERIVED FOR BLACK AND WHITE MALES IN THE FOLLOWING AGE GROUPS: 0-14 YEARS, 15-19 YEARS, 20-29 YEARS, 30-39 YEARS, AND 40 YEARS AND ABOVE. POLICE-REPORTED ARRESTS WERE TRANSLATED INTO AGE-SPECIFIC CRIME RATE ESTIMATES FOR HOMICIDE, ROBBERY, BURGLARY, AND AUTOMOBILE THEFT. USING ARREST STATISTICS AND CRIME RATES AS A BASIS FOR ANALYSIS, OFFENSE RATES FOR MALES OF BOTH RACES AND ALL AGE GROUPS INCREASED IN THE FIVE CITIES BY A CONSIDERABLE MARGIN. POPULATION CHANGES BECAME MORE IMPORTANT IN VIEW OF THE INCREASED CRIME RATES. VARIANCE AMONG CITIES WAS SUBSTANTIAL. THERE WAS SOME EVIDENCE THAT ROBBERY WAS MORE CONCENTRATED AMONG YOUNG OFFENDERS IN 1970 THAN IN 1960 AND THAT AUTOMOBILE THEFT WAS LESS CONCENTRATED AMONG YOUNG OFFENDERS IN 1970. NO CLEAR PATTERN OVER TIME WAS OBSERVED FOR BURGLARY AND HOMICIDE. SOME EVIDENCE EMERGED THAT ROBBERY WAS MORE CONCENTRATED AMONG BLACK OFFENDERS IN 1970 THAN IN 1960. SUPPORTING DATA ARE APPENDED. (DEP)