NCJ Number
26003
Date Published
1974
Length
12 pages
Annotation
A SUMMARY OF THE RESULTS OF THIS STUDY WHICH EXAMINED THE CRIME DISPLACEMENT EFFECTS IN TERMS OF TYPE, AMOUNT, AND LOCATION OF CRIME RESULTING FROM THE CLEVELAND IMPACT CITIES PROGRAM.
Abstract
PHASE ONE OF THE STUDY CONSISTED OF THE CONSTRUCTION OF ALTERNATIVE STATISTICAL MODELS TO ISOLATE THE CAUSAL FACTORS AND THE EFFECTS OF THE CLEVELAND IMPACT CITIES PROGRAM, AS WELL AS A DATA COLLECTION PLAN OR THE EMPIRICAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THESE MODELS. PHASE TWO CONSISTED OF THE ACQUISITION OF THE MONTHLY DATA DELINEATED BY THE PHASE ONE EFFORT AND, IN ADDITION, STATISTICAL ANALYSES WITH THOSE DATA IN THE CONTEXT OF THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOPED IN PHASE ONE. THE ANALYSES WERE CONFINED TO THE FOLLOWINGS TWO AGGREGATE TYPES OF CRIME (BURGLARY-ROBBERY AND LARCENY-AUTO THEFT); FIVE AGGREGATE JURISDICTIONS (CLEVELAND AND FOUR SUBURBAN AREAS); AND MONTHLY DATA FOR JANUARY 1970 THROUGH JUNE 1974. CAUSAL VARIABLES USED TO EXPLAIN THE CRIME LEVELS OF THESE CRIMES WERE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF THE IMPACT PROGRAM, VARIABLES REFLECTING THE SEVERITY OF PUNISHMENT FOR A CRIME (PRICE VARIABLES), AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC-DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES. THE ANALYSIS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN BURGLARY-ROBBERIES AFTER IMPACT IMPLEMENTATION; A WEAKER REDUCTION OF LARCENY-AUTO THEFT AS A RESULT OF THE PROGRAM; NO SIGNIFICANT DISPLACEMENT TO THE SUBURBS FOR BURGLARIES-ROBBERIES; STRONG EVIDENCE OF DISPLACEMENT FOR LARCENIES-AUTO THEFTS; STRONG EVIDENCE THAT PRICE VARIABLES SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT INCIDENCES OF THESE CRIMES; AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT EVIDENCE OF CRIME DISPLACEMENT DUE TO PRICE VARIABLES. SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH ARE INCLUDED.