NCJ Number
72932
Date Published
1980
Length
56 pages
Annotation
This study predicts future crime patterns in Washington State for the years 1979 through 2000.
Abstract
The State's Office of Financial Management, Division of Criminal Justice, conducted the study with the aid of an LEAA grant in order to plan future allocations of public resources for criminal justice agencies. The first part reports the predicted crime rates and volume of crime in the categories of total crime, violent crime, and property crime. Violent crime includes the combinations of murder, manslaughter, robbery, rape, and aggravated larceny. Property crime includes burglary, auto theft, and larceny. Total crime includes the combination of violent and property crimes. The predictions are based on the reported crime data which was published in 'Crime in United States' from 1961 through 1978. The future rates take into account the at-risk population of males between the ages of 15 and 34--a population that has been historically responsible for the vast majority of crimes. The total crime rate is expected to remain near an average of 33.3 crimes per 100 at-risk persons. Violent crimes are expected to stabilize at about 2.1 crimes per 100 at-risk persons, and property crimes at 30.8. The second part provides the justification for the prediction methods. It argues that crime rates have stabilized since 1974 and that the rates will remain stable unless social changes in the magnitude of those in the late 1960's and early 1970's recur. Data tables and graphs, 17 references and appendixes with further supporting data are included.