NCJ Number
103412
Date Published
1982
Length
27 pages
Annotation
This empirical estimate of the determinants of crime rates in Australia produced the major finding that court committals and imprisonments operated as deterrents in reducing recorded crime rates.
Abstract
The study is based on the theory that people will commit crime when they perceive that the benefits to be gained will exceed the costs. The study equation relates crimes committed (as reported in official statistics) to police force strength, court committals, sentences, median income, lower income share, youth population, manufacturing work force, male youth unemployment, overseas born population, education levels, aboriginal population, and total population. Relevant data were obtained from Australian States and Territories for 1964-76, followed by regression estimation of the equation. A comprehensive set of uniform criminal justice statistics was compiled particularly for this study. The estimation method took account of the data base being a pooled time series of cross sections for Australian States and Territories. In addition to court committals and imprisonments operating as major deterrent factors in explaining variations in recorded crime rates, ethnicity and race also had significant effects on crime rates. No measurable impact was found for the direct economic influences of poverty and unemployment nor for the attitudinal influences of education and class status. 1 data table and 28 references.