NCJ Number
68745
Journal
URBAN AFFAIRS QUATERLY Volume: 15 Issue: 3 Dated: (MARCH 1980) Pages: 291-316
Date Published
1980
Length
26 pages
Annotation
STRUCTURAL MODELS OF SUBURBAN VIOLENT AND PROPERTY CRIME RATES SHOW THAT AGE COMPOSITION HAD SPURIOUS EFFECTS BUT THAT LOW INCOME WAS SIGNIFICANT, WITH RACIAL COMPOSITION AND PHYSICAL AREA CHARACTERISTICS AS CORRELATES.
Abstract
THEORIES FROM BOTH CRIMINOLOGY AND URBAN ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH WERE USED TO CONSTRUCT THE MODELS. THESE INCLUDED THE EFFECT OF AGE COMPOSITION ON CRIME RATES; THE EFFECTS OF INCOME COMPOSITION, PERCENTAGES OF THE BLACK POPULATION, AND POPULATION DENSITY; AND THE EFFECTS OF SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS EDUCATIONAL LEVEL, HOUSING QUALITY, EMPLOYMENT CHARACTERISTICS, AND THE PRESENCE OF ABSENCE OR URBAN AMENITIES. THE MODELS WERE THEN TESTED WITH DATA FROM 645 SUBURBS FOR WHICH SUFFICIENT INFORMATION WAS AVAILABLE. THE EFFECTS OF AGE COMPOSITION ON CRIME RATES WERE LARGELY SPURIOUS. THE PERCENTAGE OF LOW-INCOME PERSONS WAS A KEY VARIABLE FOR BOTH VIOLENT AND PROPERTY CRIME RATES. THE PERCENTAGE OF BLACK POPULATION DIRECTLY AFFECTED VIOLENT CRIME RATES AND HAD AN INDIRECT RELATIONSHIP TO PROPERTY CRIME RATES, LARGELY BECAUSE BLACKS CONSTITUTED A LARGER PERCENTAGE OF THOSE WITH LOW INCOMES. PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS (SIZE, DENSITY, EMPLOYMENT/RESIDENCE RATIO, AND REGION) HAD BOTH DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS. DENSITY WAS THE GREATEST PREDICTOR OF CRIME, SUBURBAN AGE AND EMPLOYMENT/RESIDENCE RATIO WERE SIGNIFICANTLY ONLY WHEN THEY WERE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW INCOME OR BLACK POPULATION PERCENTAGES. ALTHOUGH SUBURBAN CRIME DIFFERS FROM URBAN CRIME, MANY ELEMENTS ARE COMMON TO BOTH. FURTHER RESEARCH IN THE AREA IS NEEDED. AN EXTENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND THE STATISTICAL RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH ARE INCLUDED.