NCJ Number
105388
Journal
Indian Journal of Criminology Volume: 15 Issue: 1 Dated: (January 1987) Pages: 51-55
Date Published
1987
Length
5 pages
Annotation
This analysis examines 1961-85 crime patterns for Tamil Nadu, the 11th largest State in India, and hypothesizes socioeconomic conditions to explain 'peaks,' 'valleys,' and discontinuities in crime statistics.
Abstract
Data were obtained from police statistics on reported crime. There was an appreciable overall increase in crime over the entire period, with wide fluctuation from year to year. During the first 8 years, the crime incidence was higher than expected (points lie just above the trend line). Crime trends over this period probably resulted from social and economic trends. During the second 8 years, the crime incidence notably decreased, with the points lying below the trend line, producing a peak in 1974 and valleys in 1971 and 1976. Peaks and valleys are often the result of short-term social changes such as wars, economic recessions, or short-term migration. Peaks probably resulted from political unrest and economic recessions. The valley of 1971 was marked by the Indo-Pakistan war, which was accompanied by frequent curfews in major towns. The 1976 valley resulted from the declaration of emergency in India and President Rule in Tamil Nadu. During the next 8 years, the crime incidence increased abruptly. This resulted from a change in police reporting and recording practices rather than behavioral changes. 2 tables, 1 figure, and 5 references.