NCJ Number
182030
Journal
European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research Volume: 8 Issue: 1 Dated: March 2000 Pages: 91-106
Date Published
March 2000
Length
16 pages
Annotation
This article presents recent trends in, and forecasts of, the need for sanction capacity in the Netherlands.
Abstract
Various types of crime currently show various trends. The need for prison capacity is still growing but at a smaller rate than before. The article describes the Jukebox-1 model, which was used for a part of the forecasts. It relates the trends in the capacity needed for prisons and task-sanctions for adults to trends in crime and law enforcement activities. The model pays particular attention to background factors of demographic and socioeconomic type and to the related developments in the number of crimes. The number of violent crimes is expected to rise, whereas the number of petty thefts is expected to continue to decline. The number of aggravated thefts, which has decreased over the last years under the influence of a declining number of unemployed, is expected to rise in the years to come. The model can be used to estimate (simulate) the crime-reducing effects of various policy options: more input to the police or increasingly severe sanctions with corresponding additional input into the courts and prisons. The article describes the results of some policy simulations with the model. Tables, notes, figures, references