NCJ Number
43255
Date Published
1977
Length
16 pages
Annotation
MATHEMATICAL MODEL USED TO ANALYZE THE WASHINGTON, D.C. CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM FOUND THAT ADDITIONAL BUDGET FOR COURTS AND PROSECUTION REDUCED CRIME 10-20 TIMES MORE THAN ADDITIONAL BUDGET FOR POLICE.
Abstract
A MATHEMATICAL MODEL DEVELOPED TO STUDY THE IMPACT OF VARIOUS RESOURCE ALLOCATIONS ON CRIME WAS USED IN WASHINGTON, D.C. IT FOUND THAT INCREASED BUDGET FOR COURTS REDUCED CRIME 10 TIMES MORE THAN A SIMILAR BUDGET INCREASE FOR POLICE; A BUDGET INCREASE FOR PROSECUTION WAS 20 TIMES MORE EFFECTIVE IN REDUCING CRIME. ADDITIONAL BUDGET FOR PRISONS HAD A FAIRLY LOW CRIME-REDUCTION EFFECT. A DIRECT RELATIONSHIP EXISTS BETWEEN INCREASED COURT CONGESTION AND INCREASED SENTENCE REDUCTIONS. THE CRIME-REDUCING EFFECTIVENESS OF A TRIAL IS HIGHER THAN THAT OF A GUILTY PLEA; HOWEVER, THE LARGE COSTS OF A TRIAL MAKE A GUILTY PLEA 10 TIMES MORE EFFECTIVE TO A RESOURCE-STRAINED PROSECUTOR. DIVERSIONARY PROGRAMS ARE COST-EFFECTIVE NOT BECAUSE OF THEIR REHABILITATION EFFECT BUT BECAUSE THEY FREE THE COURTS TO HANDLE MORE SERIOUS OFFENSES. THE WASHINGTON, D.C., COURT SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE FIVE TIMES ITS PRESENT CASE LOAD; IF COST CONSTRAINTS ARE CONSIDERED, A THREEFOLD INCREASE IS STILL DESIRABLE. THE NUMBER OF CASES THE PROSECUTOR SHOULD BE HANDLING IS FAR BEYOND PRESENT STRAINED RESOURCES. LIMITED IMPROVEMENT CAN BE MADE THROUGH A PRIORITY CASE SYSTEM. AN INCREASE IN CRIME, IF UNACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN BUDGET IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM, WILL LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL 6 PERCENT CRIME INCREASE BECAUSE OF INEFFECTIVE APPREHENSION AND PROSECUTION. AN EXPANSION OF POLICE CAPACITY WILL BE PARTLY NULLIFIED IF OTHER PARTS OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM ARE NOT INCREASED SIMULTANEOUSLY. INTEGRATED PLANNING OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM IS NEEDED. MATHEMATICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL AND THE DATA IT USED ARE DESCRIBED.