NCJ Number
55990
Date Published
1976
Length
50 pages
Annotation
METHODS FOR PREDICTING CRIME RATES ARE CLASSIFIED AND THEIR EFFECTIVENESS IS EVALUATED.
Abstract
THE MOST COMMON METHOD USES STATISTICAL ADJUSTMENTS WITH A SELECTED DEPENDENT VARIABLE X (I.E., STATISTICS OF AN AGENCY ON ARRESTS, CONVICTIONS, PENAL POPULATIONS) PLACED IN RELATIONSHIP TO A SELECTED INDEPENDENT VARIABLE Y. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES AFFECTING THE APPROACHES RELATE (1) TO TIME, EITHER AS REGULAR PROGRESSION OR AS A GIVEN POINT; (2) TO STRUCTURE, I.E. THE REFERENCE POPULATION, COMBINED STRUCTURAL VALUES, AND VALUES DESCRIBING THE SYSTEM FOR REPRESSION, WITH A DEGREE OF ELASTICITY IN THE TIME OR PLACE OF OBSERVATIONS; (3) TO POPULATION, E.G., TOTAL POPULATION, OR SOCIOLOGICALLY DIFFERENTIATED SUBGROUPS; AND (4) TO MULTIDIMENSIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL, AND ECONOMIC VARIABLES WITH EITHER TEMPORAL OR SPACIAL FLEXIBILITY. MODELS BEARING ON PASSAGE FROM ONE STEP OF THE PENAL JUSTICE SYSTEM TO THE OTHER ARE OF TWO TYPES: THOSE WHICH USE CONNECTIONS BETWEEN TWO PRODUCTS OF THE SYSTEM OT DEDUCE THE STATE OF ONE FROM THE STATE OF THE OTHER AND THOSE WHICH EMPLOY DELAYS AT THE INDICTMENT, JUDGEMENT, AND SANCTION STAGES TO PROVIDE SHORT-TERM DESCRIPTIONS OF VARIABLES FURTHER ALONG IN THE SYSTEM FROM PRESENT VALUES OF VARIABLES AT AN EARLIER STAGE IN THE SYSTEM. SIMULATION MODELS OF THE JUSTICE SYSTEM PERMIT PREDICTION OF A FUTURE STATE FROM OBSERVATIONS OVER A GIVEN PERIOD, WHICH IS USEFUL FOR ANALYZING EFFECTS OF VARIOUS MEASURES ON THE SYSTEM AND THE PENAL POPULATION, AS WELL AS FOR REPRESENTING THE WHOLE PENAL JUSTICE SYSTEM AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO SOCIETY. DISADVANTAGES OF ADJUSTMENT METHODS ARE THE NECESSITY OF HAVING A GREAT MANY OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR ESTIMATES AND NEGLECT OF THE SOCIOECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT OF THE JUSTICE APPARATUS. LESS EXCLUSIVELY STATISTICAL METHODS SUCH AS SYSTEMS ANALYSIS CONSIDER QUALITATIVE AS WELL AS QUANTITATIVE FACTORS. WORKING WITH THE STATISTICS OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM, THESE VARIOUS METHODS CAN ONLY MEASURE THE FUTURE PRODUCTION OF THAT SYSTEM. WITH REGARD TO BANDITRY, SUCH METHODS CAN MEASURE THE PROBABLE EVOLUTION OF SOCIAL CONTROL OVER CERTAIN LIMITED PRODUCTS OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THAT IS THE ONLY IMPORTANT APPLICATION. EXTENSIVE NOTES, TABLES, AND EXAMPLES ARE FURNISHED. --IN FRENCH. (KMD)