NCJ Number
102761
Journal
International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology Volume: 30 Issue: 2 Dated: (1986) Pages: 125-139
Date Published
1986
Length
15 pages
Annotation
The decision to grant or deny probation or parole is dependent upon making predictions of what activity or behavior can be affected by probation or parole.
Abstract
However, in research conducted in correctional decisionmaking, the evidence shows that decisionmaking diverges significantly from what one would expect to be true if there were any validity to preventive or correctional claims as guides to decisions. Because wrong decisions can negatively affect< offenders' attitudes and invite the kind of criminal behavior the decision was intended to avert, it is important that probation and parole decisionmakers be cognizant of the moral, legal, political, and ethical issues related to prediction and its consequences in such areas as correctional costs, sentencing (particularly preventive detention and indeterminate sentences), and societal versus individual rights and welfare. Because prediction is a reality of human life, engaged in by all humans, and because correctional personnel are routinely required to predict future behavior, it is important that prediction procedures be constantly monitored for their consequences and implications. Procedures must be devised that produce few errors, minimize negative consequences of wrong decisions, and continually assess the nature and effects of prediction. 39 references. (Author abstract modified)