NCJ Number
242429
Date Published
July 2010
Length
7 pages
Annotation
After a brief summary of findings from a 2007 forecast of bed space needed for a new youth detention center being planned for Baltimore, MD, this report identified serious flaws in the methodology used, thus calling into question the forecast's accuracy.
Abstract
The National Council of Crime and Delinquency (NCCD) concludes that the forecast conducted by Maryland's Department of Public Safety and Correctional Services (DPS) in 2007 cannot be relied upon to estimate accurately future facility needs in Baltimore. There are six key criticisms of the forecast's methodology. First, non-current data were used. The forecast was made in 2007 and therefore does not account for changes in the past 3 years. The forecast assumes increases in key factors which have actually been declining in recent years. Second, the forecast used an inappropriate aggregate analysis. It attempted to estimate bed space needs in two facilities (one for youth and one for women) using a single forecast. This is inappropriate since youth and women differ in many ways relevant to the system; therefore, they should be analyzed separately. Third, incorrect population data were used in the forecast. The projection used aggregate population data, including youth of all ages and adults. The forecast should be based only on the segment of the Baltimore population eligible for the proposed youth facility. Fourth, incorrect arrest data were used, as it used a single level of analysis based on arrests for all ages; the forecast should have been based on the types of offenders the facility will serve. Fifth, there is no indication that the forecast was conducted by an independent researcher. Sixth, the forecast did not consider changes in policy and practice that would most likely reduce commitments and length of stay. 3 figures