NCJ Number
241539
Date Published
2005
Length
15 pages
Annotation
In a volume that contains detailed reports on crime and punishment for six types of crime (burglary, motor vehicle theft, assault, robbery, rape, and homicide) in each of eight nations (England and Wales, Scotland, Australia, Canada, United States Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland), this chapter summarizes cross-national patterns; compares recorded crime rates with survey-based estimates; proposes an analytical use of multinational trend data; and presents evidence relevant to the deterrent effects of punishment.
Abstract
The fact that victimization survey estimates of crime rates are higher than rates indicated by police records is to be expected. Crimes may be missing from official statistics because they were never reported to the authorities or because the authorities failed to record them in crime reports. On the other hand, survey estimates may be inflated; respondents may report crimes that did not occur during the reference period. There is no clear conclusion from the comparisons regarding whether the survey data or recorded data are more reliable for estimating trends or even crime levels; however, when the two crime-data sources show the same crime trends, they are likely reliable. The authors of this chapter suggest the possibility of comparing crime trends in pairs of nations that are closely linked with respect to economy and culture. The data also provide an opportunity to analyze the deterrent effect of punishment in the different countries by computing the correlation of crime rates with the ratio of prison sentences to crimes in each case; however, the results are subject to multiple interpretations, such that it is impossible to draw any firm conclusions regarding the deterrent effect. The effort does show that a weak statistical method applied to data from several nations still produces weak results. 4 tables and 17 references