NCJ Number
45189
Journal
JOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS Volume: 6 Issue: 1-2 Dated: (SUMMER/ WINTER 1977) Pages: 361-397
Date Published
1977
Length
37 pages
Annotation
A 'COBWEB' MODEL OF HOMICIDE-EXECUTION INTERACTION IS POSED AND TESTED WITH NATIONAL DATA ON HOMICIDE RATES AND EXECUTIONS FOR 1930-1972.
Abstract
THE COBWEB MODEL OF SUPPLY-DEMAND INTERACTION IS DESCRIBED AS ANALYTICALLY IDENTICAL TO A PLAUSIBLE MODEL OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HOMICIDE RATE AND THE LEVEL OF EXECUTIONS. TWO BASIC POSTULATES OF THE MODEL ARE THAT CURRENT EXECUTIONS ARE POSITIVELY RELATED TO CURRENT HOMICIDE RATES, AND THAT CURRENT HOMICIDE RATES ARE INVERSELY RELATED TO PAST LEVELS OF EXECUTIONS. THE STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF THE MODEL FOCUSES ON THE IDENTIFICATION PROBLEM. DATA FOR 1933-59 ARE USED TO ESTIMATE THE EXECUTION FUNCTION; DATA FOR 1960-72 ARE USED TO ESTIMATE THE HOMICIDE RATE FUNCTION. THE RESULTS OF THE STATISTICAL ESTIMATION ARE PRESENTED AND COMPARED WITH THE FINDINGS OF ISACC EHRLICH WITH REGARD TO THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF CAPITAL PUNISHMENT. THE DISCUSSION OF IMPLICATIONS FOCUSES ON THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THE OBSERVED INVERSE RELATION BETWEEN EXECUTIONS AND THE HOMICIDE RATE REPRESENTS TRUE CAUSATION OR A NONCAUSAL ASSOCIATION BROUGHT ABOUT BY OTHER FACTORS. METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS, MATHEMATICAL FORMULATIONS, SUPPORTING DATA, AND REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (LKM)