Decision Making in the Criminal Justice System - An Analysis of the Effects of Uncertainty on Decision Outcome With a Consideration of the Presence of Selection Bias in Estimation Procedures

• NCJ Number: 95653
• Author(s): C A Albometti
• Date Published: 1984
• Length: 281 pages
• Grant Number(s): 82-IJ-CX-0051
• Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ); US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Sale Source: UMI Dissertation Services
• Publication Type: Thesis/Dissertation
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: University of Wisconsin-Madison - doctoral thesis

Annotation

This study examines the effects of uncertainty on the initial decision to prosecute, the bail decision, preindictment and postindictment screening, the decision to plead guilty, and the sentencing decision.

Abstract

The report argues that a more accurate understanding of discretionary decisionmaking must focus on the relationship between organizational structure and uncertainty, as well as the actor's perception of the situation at each decision point. Particular attention is given the strategies used by prosecuting attorneys, magistrates, judges, and defense counselors in their attempts to reduce uncertainty in decision situations characterized by incomplete information. Uncertainty in decisionmaking exists at each stage of felony case processing. Knowledge of the domain of responsibility permits identification of the factors related to uncertainty in decisionmaking. The effects of selection bias on estimating the determinants of decision outcome are considered; this issue arises from the sequential ordering of decision stages in the criminal justice system. Findings show no selection bias in the estimation procedures used in exploring the determinants of decisionmaking in felony case processing. Support for formal consideration of the role that uncertainty plays in discretionary decisionmaking throughout the criminalization process is advocated. Approximately 150 references are included.