NCJ Number
190241
Journal
Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology Volume: 88 Issue: 4 Dated: Summer 1998 Pages: 1277-1323
Date Published
1998
Length
47 pages
Annotation
This article attempted to assess the extent and causes of the 5 year decline in life threatening violence in New York City, the Nation’s largest city.
Abstract
With the significant decline in the homicide rate in New York City (52 percent in 5 years), it was believed that changes in police manpower and strategy contributed to the decline. This article examined the extent and causes of this 5 year drop in the homicide rate and if it could be linked to enforcement activities. Part I of the article put the homicide decline in a variety of statistical contexts, comparing the drop to previous New York experiences and to the experiences of other cities in the United States. Part II examined changes in patterns of homicide during the decline to find clues about causes, and Part III examined available data on crime trends and trends in crime-related occurrences over the years when homicide increased and decreased. Study findings showed that gun homicides trends were attributed to police intervention, the case of gun-oriented policing strategies, with qualifications. The non-gun declines were not seen as a consequence of policing changes or any other process that was not in effect until the 1990's. In summation, attributing non-gun homicide declines to law enforcement changes was premature and unjustified.