NCJ Number
37227
Journal
Washington University Law Quarterly Volume: 1975 Issue: 4 Dated: (1976) Pages: 933-978
Date Published
1976
Length
46 pages
Annotation
A MATHEMATICAL MODEL IS DEVISED TO COMPUTE THE OPTIMUM JURY SIZE AND FRACTION NEEDED TO CONVICT A TRULY GUILTY DEFENDANT (OR, CONVERSELY, TO ACQUIT A TRULY INNOCENT ONE).
Abstract
THE MODEL SHOWS THAT THE PROBABILITY OF AN INNOCENT PERSON BEING CONVICTED INCREASES BOTH AS THE JURY SIZE DECREASES AND AS THE FRACTION REQUIRED TO CONVICT DECREASES, ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE CHANGES DEPENDS ON UNTESTED PREMISES. THESE UNTESTED PREMISES INCLUDE THE PROPORTION OF TRULY GUILTY DEFENDANTS OF ALL DEFENDANTS WHO RECEIVE JURY TRIALS, THE AVERAGING PHENOMENON OF JURIES (I.E., A JURY'S PROPENSITY TO ACT AS A UNIT BY COOPTING DISSENSION), AND THE PROPENSITY OF AN AVERAGE JUROR TO CONVICT. IF THESE AND OTHER PREMISES AND VALUES COULD BE QUANTIFIED, THE MODEL COULD DEVELOP IMPROVED CAUSAL THEORIES AND POLICY JUDGEMENTS ABOUT JURY RULES AND JURY DECISIONMAKING.