NCJ Number
130919
Date Published
1991
Length
99 pages
Annotation
A Components of Change forecasting model, a combination of historic trends and expert opinion, was used to forecast Delaware's inmate and detention population for the 1991 to 1966 period.
Abstract
The incarcerated population is expected to increase at an annual average of 133 between 1991 and 1996 -- from 3,697 to 4,364, an 18-percent increase. The inmate and detailed populations increased at an annual average of 248 between 1985 and 1990 -- from 2,393 to 3,635, a 52-percent increase. The forecast considers several important influences which have had an impact on the size of the inmate and detained populations in the past few years. These include an increase both in the violent crime rate and arrests related to illicit drug behavior between 1988 and 1990. The violent crime rate increased 10 percent in 1988, 26 percent in 1989, and nearly 26 percent again in 1990. Drug arrests increased 26 percent in 1988 and 48 percent in 1989 and appear to have stabilized at a new high in 1990. Additionally, the Sentencing Accountability Act has diverted many nonviolent offenders from prison to alternative punishment, and the Truth in Sentencing Law has reduced time served for some property offenses but increased time served for some offenses against persons. 2 appendixes