NCJ Number
170203
Journal
European Journal of Operational Research Volume: 102 Dated: (1997) Pages: 418-431
Date Published
1997
Length
14 pages
Annotation
A stochastic model for projecting demand for population- driven, input-output prison capacity that incorporates demographic changes, facility returns representing failures, and capacity constraints is proposed and demonstrated.
Abstract
The model is applied to the problem of prison population projection using an approach that models inmate flow through the prison system, exploits differences in incarceration hazard rates of individuals in the general population and those who have been previously incarcerated, and explicitly considers the impact of constrained prison capacity on release policies and future admissions. First-time arrivals to prison are modeled as a Poisson process arising from the general population. Recidivist arrivals are modeled using a failure model, where the reincarceration hazard rate is a function of age and race. The model is demonstrated for the State of North Carolina, and the effect of limited prison capacity on average time served is shown. Results demonstrate that early release policies will increase prison admissions through the return to prison of former inmates and also suggest tradeoffs between early release policies and capacity limitations. Implications of the findings are considered for current "get tough" sentencing policies relative to the prison crowding problem, the length of stay for offenders not included in new policies, and the recursive effect of these policies on input-output dynamics. An appendix contains mathematical parameters of the model. 22 references, 7 tables, and 5 figures