Demography and Death by Violence: A Demographic Analysis of U.S. Homicide Offending Trends (From Handbook of Youth and Justice, P 115-134, 2001, Susan O. White, ed. -- See NCJ-187115)

• NCJ Number: 187121
• Author(s): James Alan Fox; Jodi Brown; Mary Ann Zager; Monica Bartlett
• Date Published: 2001
• Length: 20 pages
• Sponsoring Agency: Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS); Charles Stewart Mott Foundation
• Sale Source: Kluwer Academic / Plenum Publishers
• Publication Format: Book (Hardbound)
• Publication Type: Collected Work
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: Plenum Series in Crime and Justice

Annotation

Criminologists have long recognized the importance of demographic analysis in understanding patterns of offending, however they are measured, and the authors look at the role of demographics in producing homicide rate changes in the United States over the past few decades.

Abstract

The demographic change hypothesis is applied to assess demographic changes. In this hypothesis, the general population is thought to consist of different demographic segments, some of which have a propensity to commit crimes in general and homicides in particular at relatively high rates. The demographic analysis of homicide trends is approached using two alternative strategies: (1) establishing over various time periods the extent to which actual crime trends mimic those that could have been expected based only on demographic changes; and (2) looking at demographic sub-groups and examining differential changes over time in homicide offending rates. Using Uniform Crime Reporting data, the authors show the homicide rate increased by 107 percent between 1964 and 1980. Combined changes in the age and racial composition of the U.S. population explained more of the increasing homicide rate than age structure changes alone. The homicide rate decreased by 22 percent between 1980 and 1985. Demographic changes were not responsible for the decreased homicide rate during this period. The homicide rate decreased by 6 percent between 1985 and 1996. Demographic changes were responsible for the decreased homicide rate during this period. Changes in the age distribution of homicide offenders from the mid-1980's to the mid-1990's reflected a marked shift toward younger perpetrators. Homicide patterns for older adults were significantly different than those of younger age groups. Between 1985 and 1991, while youth homicide rates soared, homicide rates decreased or remained relatively stable for adults aged 25 years and older. The representation of different age groups in homicide victimization and offending varied considerably by race and sex. Findings of the analysis confirm the level of serious crime in the United States, including homicide, is greatly affected by age and race characteristics of the population. 44 references, 4 tables, and 12 figures