DEPARTMENT OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES - TWO EXAMPLES FROM THE LEGAL PROCESS

• NCJ Number: 48805
• Author(s): S S NAGEL; M G NEEF
• Date Published: 1976
• Length: 0 pages
• Sponsoring Agency: Ford Foundation; US Dept of Justice; University of Illinois
• Corporate Author: University of California, Berkeley
• Publication Format: Article
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: REPRINT FROM POLICY ANALYSIS, V 2, N 2 (SPRING 1976) P356-360

Annotation

TO PROVE THAT UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF REFORM CAN BE OFFSET IN THE PLANNING STAGES IF A REASONABLY ACCURATE CRIMINAL JUSTICE PROCEDURES MODEL IS CONSULTED, TWO PREDICTIONS FOR LEGAL REFORM ARE ANALYZED.

Abstract

THE FIRST PREDICTION EXAMINED IS THE STATEMENT THAT INCREASED PRETRIAL RELEASE WILL REDUCE OVERCROWDING IN JAILS. TO DETERMINE THE EFFECTS OF PRETRIAL RELEASE, PLEA BARGAINING MUST BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. IF THE PERCENTAGE OF PERSONS RELEASED PRIOR TO TRIAL INCREASES, THEN THE PERCENTAGE OF SUCCESSFUL PLEA BARGAINS WILL PROBABLY GO DOWN, SINCE MANY DEFENDANTS WHO MIGHT HAVE BEEN WILLING TO PLEAD GUILTY WHILE AWAITING TRIAL MIGHT NO LONGER BE WILLING TO DO SO. IF GUILTY PLEAS DECREASE, THE NUMBER OF TRIALS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TRIAL DELAY. THIS DELAY, IN TURN, COULD AFFECT THE SPEED OF TRIALS FOR JAILED DEFENDANTS, AND THUS INCREASE JAIL POPULATION. THE SECOND PREDICTION TESTED IS THE STATEMENT THAT REDUCED JURY SIZE WILL INCREASE THE NUMBER OF CONVICTIONS SINCE IT IS EASIER TO CONVINCE 6 JURORS OF A DEFENDANTS GUILT THAN IT IS TO CONVINCE 12. AGAIN, PLEA BARGAINING MUST BE CONSIDERED. THE UPPER BARGAINING LIMIT OF THE DEFENSE COUNSEL IS ROUGHLY EQUAL TO THE SENTENCE THE COUNSEL THINKS THE DEFENDANT COULD RECEIVE MODIFIED BY PROBABILITY OF CONVICTION, AND THE DEFENDANT OUGHT TO ACCEPT ANYTHING LESS SEVERE. THE PROSECUTOR OUGHT TO ACCEPT ANYTHING GREATER THAN THE POSSIBLE SENTENCE MODIFIED BY THE PROSECUTOR'S PERCEPTION OF THE PROBABILITY OF CONVICTION. IF THE 6-PERSON JURY CONCEPT IMPLIES INCREASED PROBABILITY OF CONVICTION, THEN THE DEFENSE COUNSEL'S UPPER BARGAINING LIMIT WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE AND THE AREA OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DEFENDANT'S UPPER LIMIT AND THE PROSECUTOR'S LOWER BARGAINING LIMIT WILL HAVE ENLARGED. THIS WOULD RESULT IN INCREASED GUILTY PLEA BARGAINS. THE RESIDUE OF CASES GOING TO TRIAL ARE LIKELY TO BE THOSE IN WHICH THE DEFENDANT SEES A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF CONVICTION IN SPITE OF THE 6-PERSON JURY. (DAG)