NCJ Number
52473
Date Published
1977
Length
64 pages
Annotation
STUDIES CLAIMING A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PUNISHMENT AND CRIME ARE ANALYZED. ISAAC EHRLICH'S WORK (1975) IN THE ECONOMICS OF DETERRENCE IS HIGHLIGHTED.
Abstract
IT IS NOT THE ROLE OF SCIENCE TO DECIDE FOR OR AGAINST THE DEATH PENALTY. SCIENCE MAY, HOWEVER, REINFORCE OR CHANGE THE OPINIONS OF THOSE WHO HAVE FORMULATED THEIR OPINIONS ON WHAT THEY FEEL TO BE THEORETICAL OR EMPIRICAL GROUNDS. UNTIL THE LATE 1960'S, THE PREVAILING POSITION OF RESEARCH HAS BEEN THAT AN INCREASE IN THE HARSHNESS OF PENALTIES AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE DEATH PENALTY DOES NOT REDUCE CRIME. HOWEVER, A NUMBER OF STUDIES HAVE BEEN UNDERTAKEN USING DIFFERENT STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES AND THEORETICAL BASES. THESE STUDIES HAVE BEEN LABELED ECONOMIC STUDIES, AND THE WORK OF ISAAC EHRLICH IS PRESENTED AS AN ILLUSTRATION. THESE STUDIES HAVE BEEN INTERPRETED BY SOME AS PROVING THAT HARSHER PENALTIES DO DETER CRIMES. THIS NEW RESEARCH IS EVALUATED ACCORDING TO THREE GENERALLY ACCEPTED STANDARDS: (1) THE VALIDITY OF THE UNDERLYING THEORETICAL ASSUMPTIONS, (2) THE ACCURACY OF THE DATA ANALYZED, AND (3) THE APPROPRIATENESS OF THE STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES USED. IT WAS FOUND THAT THE WORK OF EHRLICH DID NOT MEET THE GENERALLY ACCEPTED STANDARDS OF SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY. THE BEHAVIORAL THEORY UNDERLYING THE ECONOMIC POSITION WAS NOT SOUND. THE QUALITY AND QUANTITY OF THE DATA AVAILABLE WERE RELATIVELY POOR. FINALLY, THE STUDY BY EHRLICH SUFFERED FROM FLAWS IN THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS. IN SPITE OF ALL THE SHORTCOMINGS OF THE ECONOMIC POSITION, SUPPORT EXISTS FOR THE NOTION THAT PUNISHMENT DETERS CRIME. HOWEVER, STUDIES CONFLICT WITH EACH OTHER AND A RESOLUTION OF THE QUESTION IS NOT YET IN SIGHT. ECONOMISTS ARE CAUTIONED, HOWEVER, NOT TO PLACE THEIR TRUST IN WHAT AMOUNTS TO CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE. FIGURES AND A SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY ARE INCLUDED. (MLC)