NCJ Number
43382
Journal
Minnesota Law Review Volume: 61 Issue: 5 Dated: (MAY 1977) Pages: 743-767
Date Published
1977
Length
25 pages
Annotation
THE ARTICLE PROPOSES AND UTILIZES A NEW METHOD TO TEST THE HYPOTHESIS THAT CAPITAL PUNISHMENT ACTS AS A DETERRENT TO HOMICIDE; THE RESULTS OF THE TEST DO NOT SUPPORT THIS HYPOTHESIS.
Abstract
STATISTICAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THE HYPOTHESIS OF THE DEATH PENALTY AS A DETERRENT TO HOMICIDE WAS REPORTED BY PROFESSOR ISAAC EHRLICH. ALTHOUGH SUPPORT FOR EHRLICH'S RESEARCH DOES EXIST, REPLICATIONS OF HIS ANALYSIS HAVE SHOWN THAT HIS EVIDENCE OF DETERRENCE DEPENDS ON 'A RESTRICTIVE ASSUMPTION ABOUT THE MATHEMATICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOMICIDE AND EXECUTIONS, THE INCLUSIONS OF A PARTICULAR SET OF OBSERVATIONS, THE USE OF A LIMITED SET OF CONTROL VARIABLES, AND A PECULIAR CONSTRUCTION OF THE EXECUTION RATE, THE KEY VARIABLE.' THE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF EHRLICH'S TIME-SERIES AND CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES ARE BRIEFLY DISCUSSED. A METHOD WHICH AVOIDS SOME OF THE WEAKNESSES IS EXPLAINED AND APPLIED TO STATE DATA FOR 1960 AND 1970 IN ORDER TO TEST THE HYPOTHESIS THAT CAPITAL PUNISHMENT DETERS HOMICIDE. THE RESULTS OF THIS TEST DO NOT SUPPORT THE HYPOTHESIS. THE BASIC MODEL IS THEN MODIFIED IN ORDER TO ELIMINATE POSSIBLE BIASES THAT HAVE BEEN FOUND IN THE LITERATURE. NONE OF THE ALTERNATIVE MEASURES CHANGES THE INITIAL FINDING SIGNIFICANTLY. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT THE EVIDENCE OF THE 1960'S SUPPORTS THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE DEATH PENALTY DOES NOT DETER HOMICIDE.