Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment in the Five Most Active Execution States: A Time Series Analysis

• NCJ Number: 129041
• Journal: Criminal Justice Review Volume: 15 Issue: 2 Dated: (Autumn 1990) Pages: 173-191
• Author(s): S H Decker; C W Kohfeld
• Date Published: 1990
• Length: 19 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This study examines the deterrent effect of capital punishment on future homicides using a times series design that incorporates a lag structure for the effect of executions. A 50-year time series is used for the period 1930-1980 to assess the effect of executions on murder rates in North Carolina, California, Texas, New York, and Georgia.

Abstract

Together these States performed 40 percent of all executions in the United States during this period; they provide a suitable analysis unit from a methodological perspective. Based on the lag structure and the demographic and socioeconomic variables for homicides, the study does not identify a deterrent effect; policy relevant analyses produce similar negative results. Neither the existence of the death penalty, its imposition, nor the level of imposition can explain the significance of variations in homicide rates in this period. 41 references (Author abstract modified)