DETERRENT EFFECT OF THE DEATH PENALTY FOR MURDER IN OHIO - A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

• NCJ Number: 67900
• Journal: Cleveland State Law Review Volume: 28 Issue: 1 Dated: (1979) Pages: 51-81
• Author(s): W C BAILEY
• Date Published: 1979
• Length: 31 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF THE CERTAINTY OF EXECUTION ON HOMICIDE RATES AS APPLICABLE IN OHIO WAS INVESTIGATED.

Abstract

THREE MODELS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXECUTION RATES AND HOMICIDE RATES WERE CONSIDERED FOR 28 YEARS DURING THE PERIOD 1910 TO 1962. SELECTED SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE ANALYSIS AS CONTROL VARIABLES. IN EACH STAGE OF THE ANALYSIS, THE DETERRENCE HYPOTHESIS OF A SIGNIFICANT INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CERTAINTY OF EXECUTION AND HOMICIDE RATES WAS TESTED. CONSISTENT WITH THE FINDINGS OF MOST PREVIOUS CROSSSECTIONAL INVESTIGATIONS OF STATES AND LONGITUDINAL EXAMINATIONS OF NATIONALLY AGGREGATED DATA, THE INSTANT ANALYSIS FAILS TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE DETERRENCE HYPOTHESIS IN OHIO. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT, NONSIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN THE CERTAINTY OF EXECUTION AND OFFENSE RATES WAS REVEALED WHEN EACH TWO MEASURES OF HOMICIDE WERE UTILIZED. THROUGHOUT THE ANALYSIS EACH OF THE FOLLOWING SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES PROVED TO BE BETTER PREDICTORS OF HOMICIDE THAN THE CERTAINTY OF EXECUTION; PROPORTION OF MALE POPULATION, PROPORTION OF POPULATION 20-40 YEARS OF AGE, PROPORTION OF NONWHITE POPULATION, PERCENT OF URBAN POPULATION, AND PERCENT OF UNEMPLOYMENT. COMPARISON OF THE BETA VALUES FOR THE EXECUTION VARIABLE AND THE LEAST ADEQUATE SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC PREDICTOR OF HOMICIDE RATES SHOWS THE LEAST ADEQUATE SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLE ON AVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN A 95 PERCENT BETTER PREDICTOR OF HOMICIDE RATES THAN THE CERTAINTY OF EXECUTIONS. EXECUTION RATES AND HOMICIDE RATES APPEAR TO BE LARGELY INDEPENDENT FACTORS, WITH OFFENSE RATES BEING A RESPONSE TO THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC CONDITIONS OF THE STATE. OHIO'S EXPERIENCE WITH CAPITAL PUNISHMENT AS A DETERRENT PROVIDES NO JUSTIFICATION FOR REINSTATING THE DEATH PENALTY. EXTENSIVE FOOTNOTES ARE PROVIDED, AN OVERVIEW OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS IS APPENDED, AND TABLES SUPPLEMENT THE STUDY. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)