NCJ Number
60242
Journal
HUMAN FACTORS Volume: 20 Issue: 1 Dated: (1978) Pages: 47-56
Date Published
1978
Length
10 pages
Annotation
THE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS CYCLE, ANALYTICAL CONCEPTS, DEVELOPMENT, FEATURES, OPERATION, AND EVALUATION OF THE ORGANIZED CRIME ANALYSIS PROGRAM (OCAP) ARE DESCRIBED.
Abstract
THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL WHICH GUIDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES AND THE DESIGN OF A COMPUTER-BASED ANALYSIS PROGRAM CONSISTS OF INFORMATION INPUT, DATA EVALUATION, DATA DESCRIPTION AND INTEGRATION, INDUCTIVE REASONING, HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT, AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING. PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT CONSISTED OF: (1) A REQUIREMENTS SURVEY TO DETERMINE THE LAW-ENFORCEMENT COMMUNITY'S REQUIREMENTS FOR ADVANCED AIDS TO SUPPORT INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS; (2) THE DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING OF CONCEPTS FOR 13 NEW ANALYSIS AIDS, BASED ON THE REQUIREMENTS IDENTIFIED; (3) THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO CRIMINAL INTELLIGENCE WORKING FILES FOR THE CONSTRUCTION AND PRELIMINARY TESTING OF COMPUTER ROUTINES; (4) THE DESIGNING, CODING, AND TESTING ON A CDC 6400 COMPUTER OF COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR ANALYTICAL ROUTINES; (5) THE INTEGRATION INTO THE PROGRAM OF SEVERAL SEPARATE ANALYTICAL ROUTINES; AND (6) THE DESIGN OF DATA INPUT AND ANALYSIS CONTROL FORMS AND THE PREPARATION OF ANALYST INSTRUCTIONS. OCAP WAS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT VALID INFERENCES ABOUT ORGANIZED CRIME MUST NECESSARILY BE BASED ON AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE INVOLVED INDIVIDUALS, ORGANIZATIONS, AND CRIMINAL ACTIVITIES. SINCE LINKS BETWEEN ENTITIES CAN BE OF DIFFERENT TYPES AND STRENGTHS AND THEIR EXISTENCE IS LIKELY TO BE BASED UPON INFORMATION OF DIFFERENT LEVELS OF ESTIMATED VALIDITY, OCAP COMPUTER ROUTINES OPERATE ON FOUR MAIN KINDS OF INFORMATION: ENTITY (PERSONS OR THINGS LINKED TO ONE ANOTHER IN SOME WAY), LINKTYPES (DESCRIPTIONS OF THE RELATIONSHIPS THAT CONNECT ONE ENTITY TO ANOTHER) STRENGTH (AN ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE LINK), AND VALIDITY (THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE LINK OF SPECIFIED STRENGTH ACTUALLY EXISTS). MAJOR OPERATIONAL STEPS ARE TO: REVIEW ASSEMBLED INFORMATION; CODE DATA; ENTER CODED DATA; OBTAIN DATA REVIEW PACKAGES; IDENTIFY ERRORS; MODIFY ENTERED DATA; EMPHASIZE LINK TYPES; SELECT ENTITIES; OBTAIN ANALYSIS PACKAGES; AND CONTINUE ANALYSIS PROCESSES. NEARLY ALL OF THE ANALYSTS IN TWO MAJOR LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES INDICATED THAT OCAP PROVIDED A SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVED ANALYTICAL CAPABILITY. GRAPHIC DATA AND REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (RCB)