Development of Inferences in the Assessment of Intelligence Data (From Criminal Intelligence Analysis, P 149-180, 1990, Paul P Andrews, Jr and Marilyn B Peterson, ed. -- See NCJ-125011)

• NCJ Number: 125016
• Author(s): R J Kelly
• Date Published: 1990
• Length: 32 pages
• Sale Source: Palmer Enterprises
• Publication Type: Survey
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This article discusses techniques for deriving inferences from intelligence data. Pitfalls and structural problems in modern intelligence work are discussed followed by a discussion of logic and reasoning as tools for defining inferences.

Abstract

Sound arguments and deductive proofs are provided to illustrate the process of making inferences from propositions or raw data. Procedures for drawing inferences are discussed and rules of inference are included. Other topics discussed include distinguishing inferences from predictions, the formation of hypotheses and theories, inductive arguments and probability inferences, Mill's method of inductive inference, and inductive possibilities. A discussion of process and product of intelligence assessments, fallacies in inferential work, and antecedents of inferential work are also reviewed. These techniques and discussions are meant to improve one's ability to make accurate inferences from data bases that may be flawed. 8 footnotes. 8 figures and 27 references.