NCJ Number
167759
Date Published
1997
Length
15 pages
Annotation
An analysis of recidivism among 408 sex offenders in Utah concluded that the accuracy of recidivism prediction for sex offenders can be moderately improved over chance by relying on certain variables and the specification of certain models.
Abstract
The offenders had all received some sex offender treatment in a community correctional center. Fifty-three percent had been released on parole, 45 percent had been released on probation, and 1 percent were inmates. The group included offenders who had successfully completed treatment, a group who actively failed to complete therapy, and a third group who failed treatment due to a cause beyond their control such as illness or transfer. The offenders were released over a 10-year period and the average at-risk period was 4 years. Results revealed that only about 50 percent of the sex offenders engaged in any recidivistic activity of any form. It was easier to predict recidivism for offenders who were involved in both sex offenses and other offenses than for other offenders. However, nonrecidivism was more successfully predicted for offenders arrested for technical violations than when all recidivistic activity was compared with all nonrecidivistic activity. Variables indicative of past criminal involvement such as number of parole revocations and total number of arrests were useful indicators of future recidivism. Continued research on sex offender recidivism and the development of risk assessment instruments is recommended. Tables and 40 references