Disrupting the Optimal Forager: Predictive Risk Mapping and Domestic Burglary Reduction in Trafford, Greater Manchester

• NCJ Number: 237630
• Journal: International Journal of Police Science & Management Volume: 14 Issue: 1 Dated: Spring 2012 Pages: 30-41
• Author(s): Matthew Fielding; Vincent Jones
• Date Published: 2012
• Length: 12 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
• Language: English
• Country: United Kingdom

Annotation

This study used geographical mapping of previous domestic burglary locations in Greater Manchester, England, to disrupt the offending patterns of domestic burglary offenders.

Abstract

This approach presents an adaptation from a scientific study which included an examination of the propensity of offenders to return to a familiar area and the potential placement of a 'Capable Guardian' into areas at the right time to disrupt the offending pattern of the 'optimal forager'. The project involved using geographical mapping of previous domestic burglary locations and creating buffers, which were date-dependent on the color-coded areas. The areas identified were used for police and external resource deployment to provide 'Capable Guardian' presence within areas at key times, providing a multi-agency response to domestic burglaries. This approach was originally run for a 12-month period (12 May 2010-10 May 2011) with results being favorable for the reduction of domestic burglaries and more effective and efficient use of resources. Trafford Basic Command Unit showed a 26.6 percent (n=327 domestic burglaries) reduction compared with the previous 12 months prior to implementation, outperforming its most similar groups within Greater Manchester Police and nationally. These results give a preliminary indication that it can be successful adopting and adapting a scientific approach into a 'real world' situation. The improved and focused deployment of resources away from the previous ad hoc method will lead to a reduction in offenses. The level, if any, of diffusion or the impact with which this project has had on associated crime types is not yet understood. However, the methodology in this project demonstrates a simple cost-effective approach to producing patrol plans using scientific research to aid the reduction of domestic burglary. (Published Abstract)