NCJ Number
34927
Date Published
1975
Length
59 pages
Annotation
SUMMARY REPORT OF CASELOAD PREDICTIONS DERIVED FROM MODELS OF YEARLY CASE FILING ACTIVITY IN THE DISTRICT COURTS FROM 1950 THROUGH 1970.
Abstract
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR A SET OF 42 CIVIL AND CRIMINAL CATEGORIES THAT TODAY COMPRISE APPROXIMATELY 80 PERCENT OF FEDERAL DISTRICT COURT FILINGS. THIS SET OF FORECASTS HAS BEEN GENERATED FOR EACH OF 88 DISTRICT COURTS WITHIN THE FIFTY STATES. ADDITIONAL SETS OF FORECASTS HAVE BEEN GENERATED FOR EACH CIRCUIT AND FOR THE NATION AS A WHOLE. THE FORECASTS ARE FIXED FOR 1979, 1984 AND 1995, ALTHOUGH COMPUTATIONS FOR OTHER YEARS ARE STILL FEASIBLE. TABLES INCLUDED IN THE REPORT CONTAIN CASE CATEGORIES USED IN THE STUDY, INDICATOR VARIABLES, A SUMMARY OF 'SURPRISE EVENT' PROBABILITY ESTIMATES, AND IMPACT OF 'SURPRISE EVENTS' ON CASE FILINGS. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)