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Does Intra-Individual Change Predict Offender Recidivism? Searching for the Holy Grail in Assessing Offender Change

NCJ Number
246282
Journal
Aggression and Violent Behavior Volume: 18 Issue: 1 Dated: January-February 2013 Pages: 32-53
Author(s)
Ralph C. Serin; Caleb D. Lloyd; Leslie Helmus; Dena M. Derkzen; Duyen Luong
Date Published
2013
Length
21 pages
Annotation
Through review and critique of available literature, this article examines "intra-individual" change related to recidivism risk.
Abstract
The authors state that offender rehabilitation effectively reduces recidivism for treatment groups compared to control groups; however, less evidence is available to demonstrate that intra-individual changes are also related to a reduction in recidivism risk. The authors reviewed and critiqued academic and government literature linking individual change scores to recidivism by focusing on three key treatment domains: cognition, violence, and substance misuse. Database searches identified 378 studies measuring change, but only 53 studies yielding 49 explicit tests of the relationship between intra-individual change scores and recidivism outcome. Of the 49 available tests, 53.1% effect sizes were deemed significant. Across all domains, change variables significantly related to recidivism included various known risk factors: antisocial attitudes, antisocial beliefs, antisocial associates, antisocial personality, social support, and substance misuse. In addition, two findings were found to be centered on changes in negative emotion and successful treatment process. The review further suggests that there is a need to utilize better measurement strategies and more sophisticated constructs. Additional practical, theoretical, and methodological implications are discussed.