Drug Use Forecasting (DUF) Research Update

• NCJ Number: 119517
• Author(s): E D Wish; J A O'Neil
• Date Published: 1989
• Length: 7 pages
• Sponsoring Agency: Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA); US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Corporate Author: National Institute of Justice (NIJ)
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/; NCJRS Photocopy Services
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: National Institute of Justice Research in Action

Annotation

Research suggests that trends in arrestee drug use can predict changes in community crime, drug-related emergency room episodes, and child abuse by as much as one year in advance.

Abstract

The study correlated urine test results from arrestees in Washington, D.C., with a number of community indicators, including crime, drug abuse, and child abuse. The percentage of arrestees testing positive for five drugs (cocaine, opiates, PCP, amphetamines, and methadone) was calculated for each of the 51 months covered by the study. Findings indicate that the percentage of arrestees who tested positive for any drug climbed from 50 percent in April 1984 to about 70 percent in June 1988. During this same period, increases occurred in the city's drug-related emergency room episodes, overdose deaths, property crimes, homicides, and child abuse reports. The research found strong correlations between drug use and these indicators when trends were examined separately according to charge a arrest.