NCJ Number
195452
Journal
Forum on Corrections Research Volume: 14 Issue: 1 Dated: January 2002 Pages: 24-27
Date Published
2002
Length
4 pages
Annotation
This study examined the ability of dynamic risk assessment to predict adult criminal recidivism.
Abstract
The study selected 136 male offenders with the medium age of 33 years about to be release from minimum-, medium-, or maximum-security Federal institutions in Ontario, Canada. Offenders consented to being surveyed prior to release or parole within 45 days of release, and followed up by two assessments at 1 and 3-month post-release intervals. The Coping-Release Model of Recidivism was used and assessed for reliability and validity, using a combination of pre-existing and newly developed static and dynamic measures. This model seeks to explain the resumption or maintenance of criminal behavior rather than its origins. It was found that current risk assessment accuracy rates can be improved by incorporating information about how dynamic factors change over time, and their importance within conventional relapse prevention frameworks. The strongest time-dependent dynamic model outperformed the strongest static model in terms of predicting general revocation when both static and time-dependent dynamic measures were included. Assessment and reassessment of prospectively rated dynamic and static risk, measured while an offender is under community supervision, can aid parole officers in the day-to-day management of offenders under community supervision but is not wholly sufficient. Risk assessment must also be utilized in individualized treatment programs and risk management strategies in order to maximize the overall value of risk assessment. 1 Figure, 1 table, and 13 notes