NCJ Number
206760
Date Published
2004
Length
126 pages
Annotation
This report presents a matrix to help identify the threat that terrorist groups pose to the United States and it analyzes how terrorist groups change and adapt in order to identify their vulnerabilities.
Abstract
The war on terrorism has required substantial military and diplomatic resources and it is projected to require even more in coming years. Thus, it is crucial that the United States understand the threat posed so that critical resources can be most effectively targeted. Chapter 1 introduces the rationale and methodology of the current report, which was undertaken to help the United States Government identify the most immediate terrorist threats and provide insights about how to best combat them. The analytic framework utilized in the current project compared the motivations and capabilities of terrorist groups against each other. Chapter 2 presents a threat framework to be used to assess the various threats that terrorist groups pose to the United States. It is based on a step-by-step progressive analysis of the motivations and capabilities of terrorist groups in relation to United States national security interests. By combining the analysis of motivations with the analysis of capabilities, a matrix emerges that provides the United States decisionmakers with a tool for prioritizing the threat posed by these groups. Twenty-two terrorist organizations are rated on these 2 dimensions; 3 groups are highlighted that present the greatest threat to the United States and its interests. Chapter 3 analyzes how terrorist groups sustain or increase their capabilities and identifies potential targets for United States-led counterterrorism activities. Terrorist groups’ activities are divided into two categories: activities that sustain the group’s existence and activities that allow terrorists to sustain a series of attacks. The organizational and operational tools required by terrorist groups are examined. Chapter 4 explores how terrorists react to dynamics within their organizations and within their communities. The analysis highlights potential shifts in the current terrorist threat environment by presenting four case studies that illustrate the dynamic nature of the motivations, objectives, tactics, and targets of terrorist groups. The dynamic nature of terrorism makes predictions of new and emerging trends difficult. As such, the framework presented in this report will allow policymakers to gauge the potential threat while accounting for the changing nature of terrorist groups. Tables, figures, footnotes, appendix, bibliography