NCJ Number
91828
Journal
Journal of Crime and Justice Volume: 5 Dated: (1982) Pages: 1-21
Date Published
1982
Length
21 pages
Annotation
The study seeks to ascertain the descriptive power of ecological variables aggregated at the city level by comparing traditional measures of crime, i.e., the Uniform Crime Reports and self-reported measures of criminal behavior, with reports of criminal victimization. Variables used are demographic, economic, and disorganization characteristics.
Abstract
The variables selected represent indicators predictive of crime levels according to most schools of criminology. However, the relationship among the variables has remained controversial. The present study employs two-stage multiple regression to determine the relationship between individual dependent variables and several independent variables. Results indicate that both types of crime measure have strong explanatory power with relatively few structural variables, but that they produce different results with regard to predictive variables. Disorganization and demographic variables dominate the analysis of survey rates of crime, while official rates of crime are best predicted by disorganization and economic variables. The results for official rates of crime differ significantly from previous findings. None of the demographic variables commonly stressed enter the equation, suggesting that this variable loses its predictive ability when crime rates are aggregated at the city level. The author concludes that renewed attention to structural variables, particularly economic factors, is in order. Tables, a footnote, and about 40 references are supplied.