NCJ Number
72870
Date Published
1969
Length
34 pages
Annotation
This research study identified 1960 census tracts in Philadelphia which had high rates of juvenile delinquency and then analyzed the influence of variables such as race, income, density, and occupation on the delinquency found in these areas.
Abstract
The basic data on delinquency in selected census tracts was taken from a 10 percent systematic sample of all juvenile offenses known to the Philadelphia police in 1960 that involved offenders under 18 years old and produced physical injury, property loss, or property damage to a victim. This procedure yielded 504 offenses involving 950 offenders. Maps were constructed which identified areas with an unduly high number of resident juvenile offenders and those in which a high number of offenses were committed. The following variables were then chosen as predictors of high offense and high offender areas: percent of blacks, family income, contributions of unrelated individuals to family income, value of house, migration, unemployment, density, education, and occupation of employed males. Predictive Attribute Analysis, a relatively new technique that aims at uncovering nonlinear relations and interactions between a host of variables and a single criterion variable was used to determine which variables should be selected to predict areas high in delinquency. Racial composition, income, density, and occupation were most useful in predicting high resident offender areas. Predictive efficiency decreased when the racial variable was eliminated from the analysis. High resident offender areas were found to be high in most types of offenses, particularly crimes against persons, but were somewhat lower in larcenies. Offenders rarely left their own neighborhoods to commit crimes in another high offender area. Income, racial composition, and house value were the only significant variables in predicting high offense areas. A new type of area was defined, one high in offenses but low in resident offenders. As evidenced in downtown Philadelphia, these areas tend to be close to high offender neighborhoods, have commercial facilities which attract people but few residences, and are accessible by public transportation. Footnotes, maps, charts, and statistical tables are provided. For related entries, see NCJ 72869 and 72871-74. (Author abstract modified)