ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF PROPERTY CRIME - INTERACTION BETWEEN POLICE AND CRIMINALS

• NCJ Number: 17424
• Author(s): R THALER
• Date Published: 1975
• Length: 22 pages
• Grant Number(s): 74-NI-02-0002
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice; US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Corporate Author: University of Rochester
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THE EXTENT TO WHICH ECONOMIC THEORY CAN EXPLAIN VARIATIONS IN PROPERTY CRIMES WITHIN THE CITY OF ROCHESTER (NY) IS TESTED WITH A FOUR EQUATION ECONOMETRIC MODEL.

Abstract

THE ENDOGENOUS (INTERNAL) VARIABLES IN THIS MODEL ARE THE PROPERTY OFFENSE RATE, THE ARREST RATE, THE CLEARANCE RATE AND POLICE DENSITY. ONE RESULT OF THE ANALYSIS IS THAT THE INCREMENTAL EFFECT OF ADDITIONAL POLICE IN A NEIGHBORHOOD IS AN INCREASE IN THE REPORTED CRIME RATE. THIS IMPLIES THAT ANY DETERRENT EFFECT IS OUTWEIGHED BY A REPORTING EFFECT. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT)