NCJ Number
51233
Date Published
1974
Length
261 pages
Annotation
A MODEL WHICH DEPICTS CRIME AS A FUNCTION OF EXPECTED GAINS VERSUS COSTS IS TESTED WITH DATA FROM 48 STATES AND 17 CITIES IN OKLAHOMA.
Abstract
FOLLOWING A REVIEW OF THE DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO CRIME CAUSATION AND A DESCRIPTION OF ECONOMIC APPROACHES UNDERTAKEN BY OTHERS, THIS PAPER DEVELOPS A MODEL OF CRIMINAL ACTIVITY AND LAW ENFORCEMENT POLICY BY USING AN ANALYSIS OF CHOICE AND THE CONCEPTS OF SOCIAL COSTS AND BENEFITS. THE MATHEMATICAL THEORY USED IS DETAILED. THE MODEL IS THEN TESTED BY USING DATA ON CRIME, CONVICTIONS, AND PUNISHMENTS FOR SEVEN INDEX OFFENSES IN 48 STATES. TABLES PRESENT THESE DATA, THE CALCULATIONS, THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS USED, AND THE RESULTING ESTIMATED COSTS TO REDUCE CRIME. IT IS SUGGESTED THAT THE AVERAGE COST OF PREVENTING ONE OFFENSE RANGES FROM $1,114 FOR ROBBERY TO $2,154 FOR LARCENY. HOMICIDE IS NOT WITHIN THIS RANGE. AFTER EXPLAINING WHY ALL HOMICIDE PREDICTIONS ARE PRESENTED WITH CAUTION, IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE COST OF PREVENTING A HOMICIDE IS $5,500. THE MODEL IS THEN APPLIED IN DETAIL TO OKLAHOMA. A REGRESSION ANALYSIS IS RUN ON CITY OFFENSE RATE, CITY CLEARANCE RATE, PUNISHMENT, POLICE EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA, AND POPULATION TO DETERMINE EFFECTS ON THE INDEX OFFENSES. A PROJECTION OF CRIME AND THE COST OF CRIME IN OKLAHOMA IS GIVEN. POPULATION APPEARED MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFENSE LEVEL. A SURPRISING RESULT WAS THE POSITIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN POLICE EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA AND OFFENSE LEVELS. REASONS FOR THIS ARE SUGGESTED. TABLES PRESENT STUDY DATA. APPENDIXES PRESENT OKLAHOMA CRIME DATA, THE CRIME INCIDENCE MEASURE, A DESCRIPTION OF METHODS TO ALLOCATE PATROL MANPOWER BASED ON CRIME RATES, AND PROJECTED COSTS OF CRIME IN OKLAHOMA. A BIBLIOGRAPHY IS INCLUDED. (GLR)