NCJ Number
56870
Journal
Journal of Political Economy Volume: 86 Issue: 5 Dated: (1978) Pages: 815-840
Date Published
1978
Length
26 pages
Annotation
A MATHEMATICAL MODEL STUDIES THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CRIME, POLICE EXPENDITURES, CLEARANCE RATES, AND TYPE OF SENTENCE IMPOSED. IMPRISONMENT IS FOUND TO REDUCE CRIME; HALF OF THIS EFFECT IS DUE TO DETERRENCE.
Abstract
ANNUAL CRIMINAL STATISTICS FROM ENGLAND AND WALES FOR THE PERIOD OF 1894-1967 ARE USED TO STUDY THE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL DECISIONS ON CRIME. UNITED STATES DATA FOR 1933 THROUGH 1967 ARE USED FOR COMPARISON. ALTHOUGH SOME RESEARCHERS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT CRIMINAL JUSTICE POLICIES REFLECT SOCIETY'S DESIRE TO MINIMIZE THE SOCIAL LOSS FROM CRIME, THIS ANALYSIS FINDS THAT A NUMBER OF COMPETING GOALS ARE BEING PURSUED BY VARIOUS PARTICIPANTS IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE PROCESS. THIS IS MOST EVIDENT IN THE STUDY OF SENTENCING. THE INCREASING USE OF FINES AND PROBATION REFLECTS ASSORTED SOCIAL JUSTICE GOALS WHICH ARE NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO REDUCING CRIME. THE STUDY USES A COMPLEX MATHEMATICAL MODEL WHICH IS EXPLAINED IN DETAIL. CHARTS AND TABLES GIVE BOTH THE RAW DATA AND THE RESULTS. RAW DATA SHOWS THAT CLEARANCE RATES ARE HIGHEST FOR PERSONAL CRIMES WHILE CONDITIONAL CONVICTION RATES ARE LOWEST, PROBABLY BECAUSE SO MANY OF THESE OFFENSES ARE SETTLED THROUGH GUILTY PLEAS. AN INVERSE RELATIONSHIP EXISTS BETWEEN CRIME RATES AND CLEARANCE RATES. HOWEVER, GREATER POLICE EXPENDITURES WERE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER GREATER CLEARANCE RATES OR REDUCED CRIME RATES. THE MODEL ISOLATES THE DETERRENT FROM THE INCAPACITATION EFFECT OF IMPRISONMENT. CRIME RATES FELL WHEN USE OF IMPRISONMENT INCREASED; HALF OF THIS EFFECT IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE DETERRENT EFFECT. FOOTNOTES CONTAIN ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION WHILE REFERENCES ARE APPENDED. (GLR)