Economic Deprivation and Changes in Homicide Arrest Rates for White and Black Youths, 1967-1998: A National Time-Series Analysis

• NCJ Number: 189943
• Journal: Criminology Volume: 39 Issue: 3 Dated: August 2001 Pages: 591-614
• Author(s): Steven F. Messner; Lawrence E. Raffalovich; Richard McMillan
• Date Published: August 2001
• Length: 24 pages
• Grant Number(s): SBR 9513040
• Sponsoring Agency: National Science Foundation
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: A previous version of this paper was presented at the 70th Annual Meeting of the Eastern Sociological Society, Baltimore, MD, March 2-5, 2000.

Annotation

Using time-series techniques with national data for 1967-98, this study modeled the effects on changes in age-race-specific homicide arrest rates of changes in indicators of economic deprivation.

Abstract

The purpose of the research was to assess one possible explanation for the increases and decreases in youth violence, specifically, the hypothesis that these changes were responsive to changing features of the macro-economic environment. The point of departure was the previous longitudinal work by LaFree and colleagues on economic well-being and race-specific offending. In a series of studies, La Free and associates conducted national time-series analyses of offending rates for Blacks and whites. This earlier work was extended in the current study by examining the effects of similar indicators of economic disadvantage on homicide rates for the juvenile population. The study examined whether annual fluctuations in youth homicide documented in the literature could be explained, at least in part, with reference to changes in the general economic conditions that confront white and Black families. The dependent variables for the analyses were the homicide arrest rates for white and Black youths under age 18 obtained from the Uniform Crime Reports. The two measures of "absolute deprivation" were median family income, which was intended to capture the general economic well-being of Black and white families; child poverty; and the unemployment rate. The study found that a measure of child poverty was positively related to juvenile arrest rates for both races; whereas, changing unemployment (lagged) yielded a surprising negative effect on youth offending. Measures of intraracial income inequality were also associated with changes in juvenile arrest rates, but the effects differed by race. Between-race inequality was unrelated to changes in arrest rates for both races. The general conclusion of the study was that fluctuations in juvenile homicide offending over recent decades could be understood, at least in part, with reference to the macro-economic environment that confronts youth and their families. 2 tables and 59 references