NCJ Number
189848
Journal
Emerging Infectious Diseases Volume: 3 Issue: 2 Dated: April/June 1997 Pages: 1-18
Date Published
1997
Length
18 pages
Annotation
This model compared the impact of three classic agents of biologic warfare when released as aerosols in the suburb of a major city.
Abstract
The attack was made by generating an aerosol of an agent (Bacillus anthracis spores, Brucella melitensis, or Francisella tularensis) along a line across the direction of the prevailing wind. The meteorologic conditions were assumed to be optimal, and the aerosol cloud passed over the target area, a suburb with 100,000 population, within two hours. Impact was projected on the bases of 10 percent and 100 percent of the target population being exposed to the aerosol cloud. The model showed that all three biologic agents would cause high rates of illness and death. In the absence of an intervention program for the 100,000 persons exposed, the B.anthracis cloud would result in 50,000 cases of inhalation anthrax, with 32,875 deaths; the F.tularensis cloud would result in 82,500 cases of pneumonic or typhoidal tularemia, with 6,188 deaths; and the B.melitensis cloud would result in 82,500 cases of brucellosis requiring extended therapy, with 413 deaths. An economic analysis calculated the postattack intervention costs, the present value of expected future earnings of victims, and the cost of hospitalization and outpatient visits. Results showed that the economic impact of a bioterrorist attack could range from an estimated $477.7 million per 100,000 persons exposed (brucellosis scenario) to $26.2 billion per 100,000 persons exposed (anthrax scenario). The speed with which a postattack intervention program could be effectively implemented was critical to its success. The relative clinical efficacy of the intervention regimen has a lesser but definite impact on observed illness and death rates. 3 figures, 6 tables, and 22 references.