ECONOMICS OF BURGLARLY - A NOTE (FROM READINGS IN CORRECTIONAL ECONOMICS - SEE NCJ-35710)

• NCJ Number: 35713
• Author(s): D M LEIPZIGER
• Date Published: Unknown
• Length: 6 pages
• Corporate Author: American Bar Assoc.
• Publication Format: Document
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THE RESULTS OF AN ATTEMPT TO EMPIRICALLY EXPLAIN THE INCREASE IN NATIONAL BURGLARY RATES IN THE YEARS 1960 TO 1970, BASED ON A SIMPLE UTILITY MAXIMIZATION MODEL.

Abstract

THE UTILITY MAXIMIZATION MODEL WOULD STATE THAT THE ECONOMIC FOUNDATION UNDERLYING A DECISION TO ENGAGE IN BURGLARY IS BASED ON A SIMPLE NEGATIVE PREFERENCE TRADEOFF BETWEEN RETURNS TO BURGLARY AND THE RISK OF FAILURE IN THE ENTERPRISE. THE STUDY THUS POSITS THAT THE NUMBER OF BURGLARIES IS A FUNCTION OF 1) THE REAL RETURNS TO BURGLARY PER NUMBER OF BURGLARIES AND 2) THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE. RETURNS TO BURGLARY WERE SUPPLIED BY THE FBI FOR THE U.S. AND WERE ADJUSTED BY THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR 1960-1970. THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE IS THE PRODUCT OF THE PROBABILITIES OF CAPTURE, PROSECUTION, AND CONVICTION. THE REGRESSION RESULTS WERE SIGNIFICANT AND CONFIRMED THAT BURGLARY ACTIVITY IS INDEED HIGHLY RESPONSIVE TO CHANGES IN RETURNS AND RISK. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)