Economy and Race; Interactive Determinants of Property Crime in the United States, 1958-1995: Reflections on the Supply of Property Crime

• NCJ Number: 183656
• Journal: American Journal of Economics and Sociology Volume: 58 Issue: 3 Dated: July 1999 Pages: 405-434
• Author(s): Roy W. Ralston
• Date Published: July 1999
• Length: 30 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

Drawing on rational choice routine activity, and social disorganization theories, this study examines changes in rates of property crime reported to police in the United States from 1958 to 1995.

Abstract

Predictor variables include changes in rates of inflation; technological, cyclical, and frictional unemployment; arrest rates for property crimes disaggregated by race (ARPCDR); the interaction of ARPCDR and technological unemployment (to test effects of rising unemployment on whites versus blacks); and a measure of police provisioning. A Beach-MacKinnon Full Maximum-Likelihood FGLS AR1 Method (accompanied by residual analysis) is used. Significant positive effects are established for inflation, cyclical unemployment, frictional unemployment, and the interaction of white arrest rates and technological unemployment. Police provisioning is not found to be significant. These findings are fundamental to policies designed to combat the property crimes considered in this study (burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft). With increasing numbers of probationers entering and exiting the justice system each year, the probability of rehabilitation declines. Particularly during periods of increased unemployment, criminals with little education and even fewer job skills become more predisposed to continuing criminal activity as they are routed in and out of the justice system, because gainful employment becomes more difficult to secure as criminal records mount. Social welfare policies, job training programs, education, and unemployment insurance benefits will positively impact blacks, but whites may be affected more. Current governmental efforts should extend these programs (particularly unemployment insurance benefits) to probationers and nonviolent offenders being released from prison. Before traditional occupation-related perspectives can promote lawful activity, probationers and former inmates must be allowed to establish some viable link to the legal economic infrastructure before they are thrust into the environment in which they developed criminal behavior. 3 tables, 16 notes, and 58 references