NCJ Number
206576
Journal
Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 32 Issue: 4 Dated: July/August 2004 Pages: 283-296
Editor(s)
Kent B. Joscelyn
Date Published
July 2004
Length
14 pages
Annotation
Building on previous research, this study explored the deterrent and incapacitative effects of California’s three-strikes law on serious crime.
Abstract
In the mid-1990's, California adopted the three-strikes legislation to remove repeat offenders from society for long periods of time. Despite the competing views on the utility of three-strikes legislation, little research existed concerning its effect on crime. In an effort to improve on existing knowledge, this study explored the effect of three-strikes legislation on serious crime using county-level data from California for the years 1989-2000. The study used economic, demographic-oriented regressors in a series of fixed effects regression models. The study also modeled the incapacitative effect of three-strikes legislation and spatial autocorrelation in the dependent variable. Findings indicate that the deterrent effect of three-strikes legislation was fairly weak, contrary to previous research. It also did not appear that three-strikes caused certain crimes, such as homicide to increase as previously reported. With regard to three-strikes' incapacitative effect, it appeared that all index crimes were reduced when more three-strikes were committed to prison. More importantly, three-strikes appeared to have virtually no deterrent or incapacitative effects on serious crime. In conclusion, it does not appear that three-strikes in California has had a significant deterrent or incapacitiative effect on crime, even after controlling for how likely criminals are to be sentenced under three-strikes and after controlling for county-specific trends and other variables. Three-strikes in California has had no discernible positive or negative effects in terms of crime. References