NCJ Number
210633
Journal
Acta Criminologica Volume: 18 Issue: 2 Dated: 2005 Pages: 100-115
Date Published
2005
Length
16 pages
Annotation
Drawing on historical data, this article presents a trend analysis of the South African inmate population and persons under community corrections.
Abstract
The purpose of the analysis was to highlight and explain the impact of the emerging trends for the future of the South African correctional system. Data were drawn from annual reports and the management information system of the Department of Correctional Services; some data dated back to 1956. The trend analysis revealed a linear growth trend between 1995 and 2004. Using data since 1995, projections of future trends were prepared with linear regression models. Projections indicate that the daily average prison population in South Africa will reach 200,000 by the end of 2005 and will continue to increase to more than a quarter of a million inmates by 2011. The average daily inmate population is expected to double to over half a million inmates by 2037. The analysis also presents trends in the male and female prison populations and highlights trends for sentenced and unsentenced inmates as well as for different crime categories. Community corrections trends were analyzed using data originating in 1995, which indicated that the number of persons supervised under community corrections orders increased from 38,825 in 1995 to 77,435 in 2004. By the year 2014, the average daily community corrections population is expected to reach 120,670 persons. The implications for the corrections industry are discussed and include the need to dramatically reverse the corrections trends in South Africa. A holistic approach to reducing the inmate population is presented and future staffing needs of the corrections industry are estimated. Tables, bibliography