NCJ Number
176283
Date Published
1998
Length
161 pages
Annotation
The validity of the risk and needs assessment instrument used for juvenile offenders in Arizona was examined by means of a six-step process, using data for juveniles active in the justice system from October 1, 1995 to October 1, 1997.
Abstract
The data were obtained from the States online tracking system. Results of the logistic regression analysis revealed that the current assessment methods are less accurate at predicting risk than are the probation officer's judgments. The analysis also indicated that revising the scoring instrument would make it possible to predict risk with greater precision than is provided by the current system or by relying on the judgment of probation officers. In addition, the large amount of missing data in the online tracking system contradicted probation officers' reports that they complete the risk/needs assessment instrument for every juvenile. Findings also revealed that judges use the instrument more than probation officers and are less likely to think that the system would be better without it. Findings indicated the need for several changes, including assessing juveniles' risk at every referral, reducing the number of items on the current instrument to include only items predictive or risk, and monitoring the completion of the risk assessment information using data form the online tracking system. Additional recommendations; tables; appended study instruments, additional tables, and flow chart on juvenile processing; and 102 references