EMPIRICALLY TESTED ANALYSIS OF VICTIMIZATION RISKS

• NCJ Number: 68315
• Author(s): C H D STEINMETZ
• Date Published: 1979
• Length: 30 pages
• Corporate Author: Netherlands Ministry of Justice
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: Netherlands
• Note: PAPER PRESENTED AT THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON VICTIMOLOGY, SEPTEMBER 3-7, 1979

Annotation

THIS PAPER PRESENTS A MODEL FOR THE DELINEATION OF VICTIM RISKS, TO BE USED AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR CRIME PREVENTION POLICY. THE MODEL IDENTIFIES HIGH RISK GROUPS IN THE DUTCH POPULATION AND ASSISTS IN COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF CRIME PREVENTION FOR THESE TARGET GROUPS.

Abstract

THE VICTIM RISK MODEL CONSISTS OF THREE MAIN FACTORS: ATTRACTIVENESS OF THE TARGET (I.E., VALUABLE PROPERTY, SEXUAL ATTRACTION); PROXIMITY TO POTENTIAL OFFENDERS (SUCH AS OUTGOING BEHAVIOR, USING PUBLIC TRANSPORT); AND EXPOSURE TO VICTIMIZATION RISK. HYPOTHESES CONCERNING THE VICTIMIZATION RISKS OF POPULATION GROUPS IN HOLLAND POSTULATED THAT URBAN INHABITANTS ARE LIKELY CRIME TARGETS, BASED ON THE PROXIMITY FACTOR AND ON CONSIDERATION OF URBAN LIFESTYLES WHICH ARE CONDUCIVE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN CRIMINALS AND VICTIMS. LEISURE AND TRAVEL TIME CONSIDERATIONS SUGGESTED YOUNGER AGE AND HIGH SOCIAL CLASS AS FACTORS RELATED TO VICTIMIZATION RISK. THESE GROUPS SEEM LIKELY TO HAVE MORE INTERACTION WITH POTENTIAL CRIMINALS IN THAT THEY FREQUENTLY LEAVE THEIR HOUSES AND CARS UNGUARDED. THE ATTRACTIVENESS FACTOR ALSO POINTED TO THE VICTIMIZATION POTENTIAL OF THE YOUNG AND THE WELL-TO-DO INDIVIDUAL. THESE HYPOTHESES WERE TESTED AND CONFIRMED BY MEANS OF MULTIVARIATE TECHNIQUES FOR CATEGORICAL DATA DERIVED FROM COURT FILES, THE DUTCH NATIONAL VICTIM SURVEY OF 1977, AND SOCIAL AND CULTURAL DATA FROM 1974, 1976, AND 1978. RESULTS IDENTIFIED THE CATEGORIES 'AGE BELOW 25', 'SIZE OF MUNICIPALITY -400,000 INHABITANTS' AND 'HIGHER SOCIAL CLASS' AS BEING CLOSELY RELATED TO VICTIMIZATION. THE CHARACTERISTICS 'MIDDLE SOCIAL CLASS' AND 'SIZE OF MUNICIPALITY -- 5,000 TO 20,000 INHABITANTS' COHERE WITH THE CATEGORY OF NONVICTIM. FURTHER LOG-RATIO CALCULATIONS PINPOINTED YOUNG MALES FROM THE HIGHEST SOCIAL CLASS LIVING IN MUNICIPALITIES OF 100,000 OR MORE POPULATION AS RUNNING A RISK OF VICTIMIZATION 15 TIMES GREATER THAN AGED WOMEN LIVING IN THE COUNTRY. THE AVERAGE CHANCE TO BECOME A VICTIM IS ABOUT ONE-FIFTH; ONE IN SIX DUTCH PERSONS WAS VICTIMIZED IN 1977. TABULAR AND GRAPHIC DATA ARE PROVIDED. NINE REFERENCES ARE GIVEN.