NCJ Number
89846
Journal
State Court Journal Volume: 7 Issue: 2 Dated: (Spring 1983) Pages: 18-24
Date Published
1983
Length
7 pages
Annotation
This study presents the methods and results of estimates of future court case filings in Tulsa, Okla. based on both past filings and independent variables, with both techniques producing viable estimates.
Abstract
In one method, the 'projection' method, historical filing data are analyzed, a trend is identified, and then it is extended into the future. In the other method, the 'forecast' method, the dependent variable (case filings) is estimated or explained by independent variables, which are the causes, explanations, or predictors of filings, such as population, crime rates, per capita income, number of attorneys, American Bar Association membership, and automobile ownership. Both techniques assume that the relationship between case filings and the independent variables will remain constant over time and that the projections of the independent variables are accurate. To illustrate the difference between the two methods of estimation, the predictions of total case filings derived from projections (both with and without logarithmic transformation) and from forecasts are graphically portrayed. The Tulsa County Bar Association has two estimates of future case filings by case category from which to choose. Coefficients of determination displayed in one of the tables presented help in making the decision between projections and forecasts. Data indicate that projections best estimate future civil ($400-$5,000), family division, mental health, and felony case filings. Forecasts based on independent variables best estimate guardianship and conservatorship, probate, misdemeanor, and traffic cases. Civil tort filings and small claims filings were estimated equally well by each technique. Tabular and graphic data are provided along with four notes. (Author summary modified)