NCJ Number
54139
Journal
Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology Volume: 70 Issue: 4 Dated: (1979) Pages: 561-585
Date Published
1979
Length
25 pages
Annotation
VARIATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL CRIMINAL ACTIVITY DURING A CRIMINAL CAREER ARE ISOLATED FROM VARIATIONS IN THE SIZE OF THE OFFENDER POPULATION, USING 1973 DATA FROM THE WASHINGTON, D.C. AREA.
Abstract
BASIC KNOWLEDGE ABOUT INDIVIDUAL CRIMINALITY HAS IMMEDIATE PRACTICAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF DEVELOPING EFFECTIVE CRIME CONTROL POLICIES. VARIATIONS IN INDIVIDUAL CRIME RATES DURING CRIMINAL CAREERS HAVE IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING AN INCAPACITATION POLICY. RESEARCH ON CRIMINAL CAREERS IS LIMITED LARGELY TO CASE STUDIES AND BIOGRAPHICAL OR AUTOBIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES. TO EXAMINE VARIATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL CRIMINAL ACTIVITY IN THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, DATA WERE OBTAINED FROM COMPUTERIZED CRIMINAL HISTORY FILES OF THE FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION ON ADULT CRIMINALS ARRESTED FOR HOMICIDE, RAPE, ROBBERY, AGGRAVATED ASSAULT, BURGLARY, AND AUTOMOBILE THEFT. THE DATA INCLUDED ADULT ARREST HISTORIES OF 5,338 OFFENDERS AND RECORDS FOR 32,868 ARRESTS. FACTORS CONSIDERED TO INFLUENCE INDIVIDUAL ARREST RATES WERE AGE, LENGTH OF CRIMINAL RECORD, POSSIBLE TRENDS OVER TIME IN ARREST RATES, CRIME TYPE SPECIALITIES, AND YEAR OF OBSERVATION. BY EXAMINING ARREST RATE PATTERNS OF THE COHORT AND COMPARING THESE PATTERNS WITH THOSE OF PERSONS INCLUDED IN REPORTED ARRESTS OF THE UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS FOR 1973, AN ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN A CAREER CHANGE MODEL IN WHICH INDIVIDUAL ARREST RATES CHANGE DURING THEIR CRIMINAL CAREERS AND A COHORT MODEL WHERE INDIVIDUAL ARREST RATES MAY VARY AMONG COHORTS BUT DO NOT CHANGE DURING INDIVIDUAL CAREERS. ESTIMATED INDIVIDUAL CRIME RATES REVEALED LITTLE SPECIALIZATION IN CRIME TYPES, SOME TENDENCY TO ENGAGE IN RELATED OFFENSE TYPES (PARTICULARLY PROPERTY CRIMES AND DRUG OFFENSES), AND LARCENY AS THE MOST FREQUENTLY COMMITTED OFFENSE REGARDLESS OF THE TYPE OF OFFENDER. THE DATA FROM THE WASHINGTON, D.C., COHORTS DO NOT SUPPORT A DEFINITIVE CHOICE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS, ALTHOUGH THE RESULTS SUGGEST THAT PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED EFFECTS OF A DECLINE IN ARREST RATES WITH AGE AND AN INCREASE IN ARREST RATES WITH THE NUMBER OF PRIOR ARRESTS MAY BE ARTIFACTS. IMPLICATIONS OF THESE FINDINGS FOR THE STUDY OF INDIVIDUAL CRIME RATES ARE DISCUSSED. SUPPORTING DATA AND A LIST OF REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (DEP)