Etiology and Delinquency Prediction

• NCJ Number: 185961
• Author(s): Rolf Loeber; David Farrington
• Date Published: 1999
• Length: 3 pages
• Sponsoring Agency: Regents of the University of Minnesota
• Sale Source: Regents of the University of Minnesota
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: Proceedings of workshop, “Delinquents Under 10 --Targeting the Young Offender” September 30-October 2, 1999; for other proceedings, see NCJ-185959.

Annotation

In reporting on the findings of a study group on the very young offender, two workshop panelists discuss the developmental pathways that lead these children to delinquency, the factors that must be taken into account, how the research on prediction has affected the development of public policy, and the state of the art regarding tools that predict delinquency.

Abstract

Research shows three separate developmental pathways that boys tend to follow in becoming very young offenders: the "overt" pathway, in which boys tend to begin offending with minor aggression and then proceed to physical fighting and violent criminal behavior; the "covert" pathway, in which boys begin with minor covert behavior such as shoplifting and lying and then escalate into vandalism and ultimately to serious delinquent behavior such as burglary; and the "authority avoidance" pathway, which may begin with stubborn behavior, followed by defiance or disobedience and progression to truancy, running away, and curfew violations. The research has identified approximately 40 variables that affect a child's propensity to engage in delinquency and has classified them as either risk factors or protective factors in 6 main domains: individual factors, attitude factors, family factors, peer factors, school factors, and neighborhood factors. The prevalence of persistent, serious delinquency increases as the total risk/protective factor score increases. Because children are constantly developing and changing, one panelist states that risk-factor screening instruments must be multi-stage instruments that examine at-risk children over time. The study group is interested in studying four separate groups of very young offenders: those who are exhibiting disruptive behavior but are not yet offending; those who commit minor offenses but who do not go on to commit serious offenses in the future; those who commit minor offenses who do go on to commit serious offenses in the future; and those who commit very serious offenses at a very young age. These four groups of offenders have different needs and require different types of intervention programs. Suggestions are offered for developing appropriate interventions. Panel questions and discussion are summarized.