EVALUATING EVERYDAY POLICIES - POLICE ACTIVITY AND CRIME INCIDENCE (FROM ECONOMICS OF CRIME AND LAW ENFORCEMENT, 1976 BY LEE R MCPHETERS AND WILLIAM B STRONGE - SEE NCJ-37726)

• NCJ Number: 37743
• Author(s): E T JONES
• Date Published: 1976
• Length: 13 pages
• Corporate Author: Charles C. Thomas
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

A STUDY OF THE IMPACT THAT YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN POLICE PROTECTION EXPENDITURES, UNIFORMED POLICE MANPOWER, AND CIVILIAN POLICE MANPOWER HAVE ON YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN INDEX CRIME RATES IN 155 AMERICAN CITIES.

Abstract

THE 155 CITIES STUDIED WERE THOSE WITH A 1968 POPULATION GREATER THAN 100,000. THE IMPACTS WERE EXAMINED FOR THE ONE-YEAR CHANGES BETWEEN 1958 AND 1970 FOR THE MANPOWER FACTORS AND BETWEEN 1959 AND 1969 FOR THE EXPENDITURE VARIABLE. THE MAJOR ASSUMPTION OF THE APPROACH UTILIZED IN THIS STUDY WAS THAT IF EXPENDITURE OR PERSONNEL CHANGES FOR AN AGENCY OR PROGRAM ARE HAVING AN IMPACT ON SOME GOAL (SUCH AS CRIME REDUCTION), THEN, FOR A LARGE NUMBER OF CASES, THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHANGES IN EXPENDITURES AND PERSONNEL AND CHANGES IN SOME MEASUREMENTS OF THE GOAL. THE STUDY UTILIZED CRIME DATA FROM THE FBI UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS (UCR), MANPOWER FIGURES FROM THE UCR, AND EXPENDITURE DATA FROM THE U.S. BUREAU OF THE CENSUS' 'CITY GOVERNMENT FINANCES'. ANALYSIS OF THE DATA SHOWED THAT YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN EXPENDITURES, UNIFORMED POLICE MANPOWER, AND CIVILIAN POLICE MANPOWER HAVE VIRTUALLY NO RELATIONSHIP WITH YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN INDEX CRIME RATES. THE AUTHOR CONCLUDES THAT EITHER 1) CHANGES IN POLICE ACTIVITY HAVE NO IMPACT ON CHANGES IN INDEX CRIMES, OR 2) THAT PROBLEMS IN MEASURING CRIME HAVE CAUSED THE EFFECTS OF INCREASED MANPOWER AND EXPENDITURES TO BE MASKED BY SUCH FACTORS AS INCREASED CRIME REPORTING RESULTING FROM INCREASED MANPOWER AND EXPENDITURES. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)